IQ Teaser #35
In a tent at a carnival people are playing a game of chance. It costs one dollar each time you play, and if you win, you receive $5.00. You can choose one of the following to try to win:

Rolling 2 standard dice. If they come up double 6's or double 1's, you win

Drawing a card from a standard 52 card deck, which has been freshly shuffled. If you draw a face card, you win.

A box is shaken which contains 11 white marbles, 10 black marbles, and 8 red marbles. Without being able to see the contents and with all marbles being indistinguishable from the others without seeing them, you draw 2 of them. If one is white and one is red, you win.

A bag is shaken which contains 7 chips, each one with a different day of the week painted on it. Without seeing them, the chips are indistinguishable. Without seeing the contents, you draw 3 chips, one at a time. If the 3 you draw are in order (e.g. Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, and NOT Wednesday, Saturday, Friday), you win.

You spin a wheel that shows all 365 standard dates of the year on it. The wheel randomly lands on one date. If it is in April or May, you win.

1. Which method produces the best chance of winning?

2. Which method produces the worst chance of winning?

3. If you played several times using the best method, would you be more likely to make money, lose money, or break even?
Best: Dice; Worst: Wheel; Break even
Best: Card from deck; Worst: Box of marbles; Break even
Best: Box of marbles; Worst: Card from deck; Break even
Best: Bag of chips; Worst: Dice; Make money
Best: Wheel; Worst: Bag of chips; Make money
Best: Dice; Worst: Bag of chips; Make money
Best: Card from deck; Worst: Box of marbles; Lose money
Best: Box of marbles; Worst: Dice; Lose money
Best: Bag of chips; Worst: Wheel; Lose money
Best: Wheel; Worst: Card from deck; Lose money

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